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The New Global - World Economy, Power Shift
and Global Architectures
 
Post-Covid Scenario Process - Scenario Assessment

Thank you for taking the time to assess the results in preparation of the New Global workshop. 
In the following, we kindly ask you to rate a number of statements about the future. If you have just joined the project, the presentation of future questions might be new to you. It reflects the "building blocks" of our scenarios. But for the assessment, it is only important to know that you will be rating the different statements about the future presented in the form of statement A and Statement B.

Ratings include your view on the current situation as well as the future as you would expect it. Furthermore, we are interested in your view on developments which would be desirable.
In case of any questions, you can contact us via E-Mail: guenther@scmi.de

Question 1: Nationalism vs. Multilateralism
How will global cooperation develop?
Statement A: National interests dominate global political decisions and the perception of global
                       problems is limited.
Statement B: There is a high degree of multilateral cooperation and a high willingness to solve global
                       problems together.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 2: Power Shift
Will we see a shift from the West to Asia?
Statement A: The inequality between the traditional industry countries and emerging countries like China
                        remains high and the West still dominates global politics and institutions.
Statement B: Emerging countries, especially China, catch up with the West and we see a general shift
                     of power towards Asia.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 3: Role of state- and non-state actors
Will we see a shift from nation states and global institutions to other / non-state actors?
Statement A: State actors – nation states but also regional and multinational institutions – shape policy
                       and set the framework for business and civil society.
Statement B: State actors are increasingly losing their importance – companies, but also megacities, are
                       making decisions increasingly uninfluenced by national or global regulation.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 4: Polarity of world order                                                          
Will world politics be shaped by U.S.-China rivalry - or by broad multipolarity?
Statement A: World politics is dominated by the rivalry between the U.S. and China - other powers such
                       as Russia, India and Europe must fit into the new power structure.
Statement B: The world is becoming significantly more multipolar. In addition to the USA and China, other
                       countries such as Russia and India are playing a greater role. Europe is also becoming
                       increasingly independent.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 5: Global South                                                                              
What role will Africa and Latin America play in the future?
Statement A: The global South, especially Africa and Latin America, is largely disconnected from political
                       and economic development.
Statement B: The global South, especially Africa and Latin America, is catching up economically and is also
                       being heard more in political decision-making.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 6: Climate policies                                                                        
How global policy responds to climate change?
Statement A: Global climate policy falls far short of requirements - national egoisms slow down
                       the process, if it is wanted at all.
Statement B: Politicians, companies and civil society are responding to the climate crisis consistently
                       and with global strategies.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 7: Global conflicts                                                                         
How much do global conflicts shape world politics - and how good are the tools for conflict management?
Statement A: Global conflicts are spatially limited – they can often be defused or resolved through
                       efficient conflict management.
Statement B: The world is characterized by strong regional and global conflicts - political and cultural
                       as well as violent (via migration, in cyberspace and directly military).
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 8: Western values and human rights                                    
How attractive are Western values and human rights?
Statement A: Western values such as freedom, the rule of law, equality, individualism and tolerance are
                       losing their appeal - especially in the face of the efficiency of authoritarian regimes.
Statement B: Western values such as freedom, the rule of law, equality, individualism and tolerance continue
                       to have global appeal – regardless of the government of many states.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 9: Opening of China                                                                      
How will China's position vis-à-vis the world evolve?
Statement A: China strives for an active role on the international stage (economically, politically, military)
                       while opening up to foreign investors.
Statement B: China primarily safeguards its internal development – both its international activities and the
                       limitation of foreign influence in China serve this purpose.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Question 10: Digitization and global middle class                               
Will digitization bring the world together and strengthen a global middle class?
Statement A: Numerous emerging countries reach development limits - growth of the global
                       middle class slows down.
Statement B: Broad digitization on a global scale is accompanied by the development and growth
                       of a global middle class in many emerging countries.
Clearly A
Strong tendency to A
Slight tendency to A
No statement possible
Slight tendency to B
Strong tendency to B
Clearly B
Which statement characterizes the current situation?
Which statement do you expect for the year 2035 (and beyond)?
Which statement corresponds to your personal wishful thinking?
Demographic Information (voluntary)
What ist your age?
What is your profession / background?
What is your country?
I would like to stay informed of the scenario process and results of the scenario assessment for NEW GLOBAL.
My email address and name is:
I agree to be named as part of the scenario team with the following information (voluntary)
ScMI AG can also keep me up to date on other interesting future projects and offerings.
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